Some Champion Hurdle clues

 

It�s in the past that really matters at the highest level

 

With all the talk, all the hype, all the possibilities, the best piece of form on offer for this Champion hurdle is already in black and white. Cheltenham form is a great line to follow for the up and coming big races but Cheltenham Festival form is a different matter all together and should be ignored. Khyber Kim is being talked up and in the main betting lists not far away from the favourite Go Native. Khyber Kim has won his last two races at Cheltenham taking the Greatwood and Boylesports.com hurdles against rivals he will meet again in the Champion, but is that form any good? Or a red heron! Both of those wins came on soft ground, which he prefers but with the ground likely to be good to soft or faster his credentials look less desirable compared to his festival form where he was 22^nd of 27 in the 2008 County and 10^th of 19 in the Supreme Novices last season, both races were on good to soft which indicates two things. One is that Khyber Kim needs soft ground at least to be seen at his best and two on better ground at pace in big fields he is exposed and not good enough. Therefore he cannot be backed with any confidence and is better passed over.

Binocular has some good festival form but not winning form which is a worry especially as he was pulled out only to be reinstated after passing some fitness tests, he has not go on from his 3^rd in last years Champion and previous second in the 2008 Supreme Novices, again he is one to discount although he is capable of making the frame.

Celestial Halo ran a cracker to be second in last years Champion and he Won the 2008 Triumph hurdle so he must be taken seriously and although beaten by Khyber Kim in the Boylesports hurdle he is a much better horse on good or good to soft where the likely ground should see him beat that rival this time round. Go Native Won the Supreme Novices last year but has shown on flat tracks that he barely gets 2 miles so either he managed to outstay lesser rivals in 2009 renewal or he is going backwards in stamina only just managing to hang on against another non stayer Starluck over Christmas at Kempton, the ante post favourite would be a big negative for me on that Kempton run.

Medermit is being touted by many and is second in last years Supreme was a great run however he has been a bit disappointing and never won at Cheltenham in three attempts. If a horse can�t win at Cheltenham at all he is hardly going to start winning a Champion hurdle, he can be confidently dismissed. Solwhit has never run at Cheltenham and is much better on boggy ground and with him scooping badly last weekend, he is a possible non starter and despite being tipped up by this site at 6/1, he looks a non starter, however his battling qualities have won him many races this season being defeated just once when third in the Fighting Fifth in a farce of a pace race (better ignored).

Won In The Dark has run in two previous festivals, 3^rd in the 08 Triumph and 10^th in last years Champion, he simply does not look good enough along with Raise Your Heart (11^th in last years County) Muirhead 5^th in the Champion last year, done nothing of note since.

Donnas Palm and Ebadiyan best ignored and outsiders. So who is left to chew the fat over, Zaynar Won last years Triumph but was turned over at 1/14 over 2m 2f at Kelso in a bog, best ignored. However Triumph hurdle winners the year before do not have a good history when attempting to win the Champion the year after. So that leaves last years winners Punjabi who is having his fourth festival run after a 4^th in the 2007 Triumph, 3^rd in the 2008 Champion plus of course last seasons Champion crown. He certainly is at his best in March onwards but did he win a sub standard Champion in 09? Probably.

Starluck is a horse I really like but I still feel he is much better on flat less demanding tracks like Aintree, I can�t see him being good enough to win this as he shapes as a non stayer after cruising like a tank mid race.

 

Conclusion: Should Solwhit miss the race then my idea of the winner is Celestial Halo who will be primed for a big run on ground he likes plus the magic of Ruby on board to help him either battle it out with Solwhit or if missing go on to take the big un to go along with his 08 Triumph, only time will tell.

 

Russ Evans

11^th March 2010

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Cheltenham Update

By Russ Evans

10^th March 2010

 

Solwhit doubtful for Champion hurdle is a blow to site

 

Whenever bets are posted ante post and strong fancies are thought and made, the run up to a big event is always nervy as it is almost impossible to stay away from the racing news for that dreaded piece of info that states so and so has been pulled out or is now doubtful. It was while watching the Cheltenham preview on RUK that news broke about the doubt of Solwhit taking his chance in the Champion hurdle after he scoped badly, I believe a final decision will be made this Saturday on his chances which currently are less than 50/50. Another ante post horse put up on the site is the Nicholls trained Pistolet Noir who has been taken out of the Triumph hurdle, tipped up at 10/1 the horse then ran second in his next race to a big outsider and then was pushed out in the betting to 20/1, drifted further to 25/1 before being pulled out. Even at those longer odds I still fancied his chances so his omission is disappointing but I expect he will show up possibly at Aintree?

Should Solwhit miss the big race then I have another horse that I think is well capable of winning the race especially as the ground is looking to be on the goodish side of soft. I will keep that bit of information on ice for now until the final bits of the jigsaw are confirmed.

The opening race of the festival has produced some great winners in the past and this year’s Champion hurdle favourite Go Native won the Supreme Novices last year at 12/1. The big talking horse from Ireland this season is Dunguib who also had an entry in the Champion hurdle but wisely connections have decided to put that plan back another season. The Philip Fenton trained runner has been impressive this season beating all before him and heads the market odds on, which is very skinny despite him being a potential super star. In his races back home is has been a bit sticky over his hurdles but then again he is still a novice and those mistakes could well be because the pace of the races have not suited. When his jockey has decided to push the button he has responded magnificently putting distance quickly and effortlessly over his rivals. However with all that said, would you be prepared to back him at odds on? Probably not, I wouldn’t myself even though I have the utmost respect for the horse. One horse that has caught the eye is Donald McCains runner Peddlers Cross who has an entry in the further distanced Neptune. I am hoping that connections decide to run him in the Supreme against Dunguib as he has too much pace to waste in the other mentioned engagement. His jumping has been superb and quick and as won his three races this season against some decent opposition and although two years younger than the favourite he still as the experience to run a very big race at more attractive odds of around 13/2. Of course it is now best to wait until plans are concrete before playing in the market but should he line up he is the one for me.

At 2.05 it’s time for the Arkle and Somersby since being put up by the site has seen his price gradually shorten to 5/1 from 8/1. Jumping will win this race and he has shown so far on two winning runs over the bigger obstacles that he can jump very well.

The site will have a more detailed reports on the days action the evening before every day so make sure to tune in online for what is going to be four cracking days action.

 

 

Russ Evans

Posted 10^th March 2020 (11.30am)

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Cheltenham ante post update

31^st January 2010

 

Noir price doubles as Big Zeb is cut

 

As you know the site posted an ante post Canadian bet recently and since then two of the runners have had a race. Triumph Hurdle hope Pistolet Noir was second yesterday in the opener at Cheltenham going down 2L to a 100/1 shocker. However the good news is that the bookies have doubled the price and 20/1 is now up for grabs. Pistolet Noir in my view was beaten because Ruby could get him to settle in a small field and will be much better suited when a big Triumph field lines up come March. He was running on again up the hill but used up too much energy during the race and that run will bear no importance to his intended target, don’t be put off by that run and enjoy the fact that you can now get 20/1 instead of the advised 10/1.

 

Big Zeb won his race today impressively by 7L at Punchestown and the bookies have reacted by shortening him from 8/1 to 5/1. If he can bring his Irish form with him on the day in the Champion Chase then he will certainly give the Nicholls pair some thing to think about.

 

The Arkle betting took further shape today when the advice Somersby was cut again to 6/1 from 7/1, the Knight horse will run a big race and will have a prep run in February, a win will make him favourite so get on now.

 

Barbers Shop will go straight to Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase as reported in the Racing press, in my eyes the 6/1 is a top bet and I will not have him beaten at any price. The trip is ideal for this fellow who jumps so well and I cannot wait for the race, I wish it was tomorrow so I can go and collect my money.

 

 

The Cheltenham Festival 2010 line up

 

Tuesday 16th March

Time	Race	Distance
1.30	Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle	2m 1/2f
2.05	Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase	2m
2.40	William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase	3m 1/2f
3.20	Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy	2m 1/2f
4.00	Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase	3m 7f
4.40	David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race	2m 4f

Russ Evans

31^st January 2010

 

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Impressive Solwhit heads the Market

By Russ Evans

27^th January 2010

 

Last Sunday in the Irish Champion hurdle, Solwhit continued his step up for stardom by taking the Leopardstown race in battling style. Tracking the early leaders close up, Davy Russell brought his mount up three hurdles out and went on with ex champion Sublimity, who running another good race. Both runners where bobbing heads approaching the last until Solwhit wore down his rival with his speed and stamina winning by just over 4L from the running on Donnas Palm who was a further 1 ½ clear of Sublimity who ran out of steam in third.

 

            It is clear Charles Byrnes has his horse in great form and I would guess he will now be wrapped up for Cheltenham and the big day although it would not surprise me if he did come out again. Betfred along with other bookies have installed him as the new ante post favourite cutting him from 6/1 (as advised by the site see below) to 4/1. At 4/1 Solwhit still represents a good bet as he will not be found wanting up the Cheltenham hill when the chips are down. The ante post advice runs his races in this style of a real old battler with speed and his stamina is definitely what Champion horse need at the finish. Unlike the flat tracks such as Aintree etc Prestbury Park even over the minimum trip still needs some getting and his engine is clearly for all to see. My previous rating of 6 out of 10 will be advised as a 9 after this fine effort.

 

Another advice that has been clipped by a point in the ante post market is Henrietta Knight’s Somerbsy in the Arkle Chase. There is a lot of confidence behind her runner and I expect the price to shorten even further as the festival approaches.

 

If you like an ante post combination bets on what is the best racing action there is then this little bet below to a £1 stake pays a tidy £51,799.00. The bet is a £1 win Canadian or Super Yankee which is 26 bets (see the Know Your Bets page on this site for other combinations) with a stake of £26. However a 50p stake would cost £13.00 for a payout of £25,899.50, 25p stake is at a cost of £6.50 for a pick up of £12,949.75.

 

 

The advised bet at these prices is as follows

 

Arkle Chase    Somersby 7/1

Ryanair Chase    Barbers Shop 6/1

Champion Chase    Big Zeb 8/1

Champion Hurdle    Solwhit 4/1

Triumph Hurdle    Pistolet Noir    10/1

 

The above prices are currently available with Betfred as at 27^th Jan 2010 at 11.45am

 

 

Russ Evans

Cheltenham 2010 Preview

 

Lets go shopping for a maximum 10 rating

 

We are only a few weeks away from the Cheltenham Festival in March so let’s have a look at some ante post bet selections. Barbers Shop fails to stay anything past three miles so will not line up in the Gold Cup this year but in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday 18^th March, he looks to have a race trip that is ideal for him. In this year’s King George he was still going well approaching two out but found the wall and faded back in fourth despite trying hard to battle on. The Queens horse jumps very well, as a good cruising speed and is a proven performer around the Cheltenham course. Nicky Henderson will sure to have his runner in good form and the 6/1 still looks good value especially as he will be one of the sites banker bets of the meeting.

 

            Another Henderson horse who is a big star in the making is Punchestowns who heads the market at 7/2 for the RSA Chase, a good performer over hurdles he was second to the excellent Big Bucks in last years World Hurdle. He was beaten again by the Nicholls horse in his race before the Festival and with his main rival sticking to hurdles for the time being there seemed very little option but to send him over jumps where he duly obliged on his debut at Newbury back in November. The weather has stopped him from running again but no doubt he will be out again before March and another win will strengthen his position at the head of the market so it may be wise to take the 7/2 now as he will be hard to beat.

 

The Champion Chase at the moment looks a fascinating race after the way Champion Master Minded performed in his debut race of the season. He was obviously not right that day but still holds a short price favouritism slot with the bookies, however until he comes back out and performs to his normal winning standard he cannot be touched at that price. A bit further down the betting is Big Zeb from Ireland who gave the Champion a tough race when going down by a short head last April at Punchestown. He then went on to win his next race at Navan over Made In Taipan but was well beaten in the Tingle Creek to Twist Magic by 33L. His only run at Cheltenham was in last years Champion Chase when he fell four out when still going well, he may not have won that day but he would have been in the shake up. A year on and with doubts about Master Minded, if he can bring his home from to the races overseas then the 7/1 on offer looks a decent reward as he has the talent and engine to win a big race.

 

            The Arkle looks a good renewal with plenty of horses in with a shout but Henrietta Knights Somersby looks a good prospect at 8/1. A fair hurdler with out being really top class he always had the look of being an exciting chaser and two wins from two over the big obstacles he has found his place in the National Hunt game. His trainer is very excited about his chances after his last win over the useful Crack Away Jack at Sandown when he powered home up the hill to win by nearly 3L in a small field. He made a couple of mistakes but jumped well and will only come on from that run. Again the weather has stopped him from turning out again but a run in the next 2-4 weeks is on the cards before the Arkle. Another good win will see his odds probably be cut in half so the 8/1 is best taken now.

 

The Triumph Hurdle is always a great betting race and horses that have a big engine and battling qualities only win this race as it normally boasts a big field so plenty of hustle and bustle goes on and the weak hearted are found out long before the turn for home. Paul Nicholls runner Pistolet Noir has only had two runs and past winners have needed a bit more experience to win this type of race, however he is sure to have another run out before the big day and assuming all goes well the 10/1 that is currently on offer is looking good value even at this early stage. He was beaten at Chepstow on his debut looking a bit one paced after the last flight but only went down by 2L which was encouraging and when he was turned out at Cheltenham a month later in November during the Paddy Power meeting he powered up the hill in a class 1 race beating useful Barizan by 9L. He stayed on strongly suggesting that the climb at Prestbury will bring the battling qualities out in him, he looks a good un.

 

            The Champion Hurdle looks a belter and is wide open with 5/1 the favourite in the ante post lists. The site is keen on Irish raider Solwhit who has put some good horses to bed over the past two seasons; in fact he missed the festival last season and went straight to Aintree winning the Aintree Hurdle at 6/1. That suggested he prefers flat tracks and that may prove to be the case but connections are keen to run him this year and his only defeat of last season came at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth when he was third to 25/1 winner Go Native. That was a funny old race with all the hot pots being turned over so the form of that running looks a bit out of sorts. He was back to winning ways next time out when beating previous Champion Sublimity by 2L at Punchestown. He beat last years Champion Hurdler Punjabi back in May by a short head which may have decided his line up in this year’s renewal. The site is not too strong about having a big bet at 6/1 as there is still a slight niggling doubt about his preference for flattish tracks but on paper he holds a great chance. Starluck definitely prefers flat tracks so cannot be too excited about his chances in the Champion, Aintree seems a better option for him.

 

            In the World Hurdle, nothing can stop Big Bucks who looks even better than last year when the site was raving about his chances last season. Surely a tilt at the 2011 Gold Cup is the bet about him now.

 

Summary (rating out of 10)

 

Triumph Hurdle    Pistolet Noir 10/1   Rating 7

Arkle    Somersby 8/1    Rating 8

Champion Hurdle    Solwhit 6/1    Rating 6 (revised rating of 9 27/1/10)

Champion Chase    Big Zeb 7/1    Rating 7

RSA Chase    Punchestowns 7/2    Rating 8

Ryanair Chase    Barbers Shop 6/1    Rating 10

 

2011 Gold Cup    Big Bucks      Rating 10

 

 

More updates for Cheltenham Festival will follow leading up to the big meeting in March, feel free to subscribe to the site so you will know when updates have been made to the Preview page.

 

 

RussEvansRacing 17^th January 2010

 

 

 

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