Cheltenham Day Four

Friday 19^th March 2010

Sadly the final day of this year's festival is upon us, how time flies, so lets enjoy this final days action with a few good runners to cheer on. But first I was very disappointed with the run of yesterday's Nap Barbers Shop who seemed one paced throughout the Ryanair, maybe the ground was not to his liking but it is hard to see where he can go from here? As predicted Big Bucks was magnificent but at 5/6 I could hardly put it up as a Nap selection despite my bullish comments about the horse. I would like to see him back over fences but it looks like a triple bid on next years World Hurdle is the plan and to be honest I can't blame them.

Today looks a cracker with more competitive racing apart from the main event The Gold Cup which looks a one horse race in Kauto Star, enough said on that one but he is a true Champion and I am not convinced that Denman his main rival and stable mate will get round.

The opening race is the Triumph hurdle, a race I love to get stuck into and despite all the comings and goings on of ante post hopes I like the look of Barizan whose form stacks up well at Cheltenham and on good ground. Rested since finishing second to Pistolet Noir at Cheltenham 125 days ago the break would have done him good as he had been on the go since June last year. A winner of 5 from 7 with AP on board, Tom O'Brien will be in the saddle for trainer Evan Williams. At 33/1 Barizan is a each way selection. Ran a cracking race, lead from the start and opened up a 15L gap but was caught up the hill after stumbling at the last, a great effort and landed some great each way bets as advised. 2nd 14/1

The County hurdle as ever looks tricky but the Henderson runner Bellvano looks very useful with his only recent defeat being second to Menorah who won the opening race of the meeting lowering the colours of Dunguib in the process. Bellvano is sure to have the form readers on his side and will be well supported to run a big race. 10/1 is on offer early doors. NAP was never knocked about at the business end after travelling well throughout, why I just don't know.

At 2.40 the Albert Bartlett hurdle can go to four time winner Tell Massini who has been in cracking form this season, his course and distance win was on softer going but he should be able to act on this faster surface. The Tom George trained runner will be ridden by Paddy Brennan who is still looking for his first festival win of the meeting, he has a live chance to break his duck. 4/1 favourite, which is no surprise.

The Foxhunters chase is considered the Amateur riders Gold Cup but it is always heart in your mouth stuff when you having a bet in the race. Gentle George is one of the younger runners in the line up but he has won both starts this term and in Richard Burton has a capable jockey on his back. At 20/1 he represents some good value.

We may have found a good one in the Conditional jockeys handicap hurdle with the David Pipe trained Ashkazar who was only 14/1 in last years Champion hurdle behind winner Punjabi, he finished well done in the champion but was considered good enough to enter so his participation in this race is eye catching. His last five runs have been average with getting carried away and he looks like he has been laid out for this. Today's jockey Hadden Frost takes off a useful 3lbs and has already tasted festival success on Buena Vista so confidence will be high. We may have found a nice little earner in this race. 6/1 favourite, the bookies don't miss a thing do they?

The last race of this years festival can go to Paul Nicholls Tataniano who will appreciate this ground, he will be hard to beat and expect him to be heavily backed so get the best price you can. His course form is solid enough to make him a serious player and a bold show will do nicely. 7/1 get on early as that price will be smashed into.

Today's selections

Cheltenham

1.30 JCB Triumph hurdle

Barizan    2nd 14/1 available at 33/1 early doors

2.05 County Hurdle

Bellvano (Nap)    unplaced

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices hurdle

Tell Massini    pulled up

3.20 Gold Cup

Kauto Star    fell

4.00 Foxhunters Chase

Gentle George    4th 14/1

4.40 Conditional's Handicap hurdle

Ashkazar    unplaced

5.15 Grand Annual

Tataniano

Posted 18^th March 2010 (17.15)

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Cheltenham Day Three

Thursday 18^th March 2010

Barbers Shop to be a cut above his rivals in the Ryanair

It was good to get off the mark yesterday when Peddlers Cross won at 7/1 in a very impressive fashion and the unbeaten runner from the Donald McCain yard looks to be a real star in the making. The site put up Big Zeb ante post for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and he looked the winner three out as he cruised up the Cheltenham hill under Barry Geraghty to win by six lengths at a nice 10/1.

For the site, today is THE day at Cheltenham with the sites banker Barbers Shop in the Ryanair Chase at 2.40. The Queens horse deserves to win a race like this at a top meeting as he has been highly tried in longer trips against Champions and ran with much credit. He jumps Cheltenham well and the 2miles 5f trip will be spot on for him as past 3miles he runs out of steam. So much has been said of favourite Poquelin but I just can see him doing the business today and although the field is a classy looking field none will be doing it better than today's Nap Barbers Shop who trades at a tasty 6/1. did not seem to act on the ground and got outpaced when he needed to press the button, looked one pace and hard to see where he goes from here, disappointing

I don't like backing odds on shots but I am a big fan of Big Bucks and I see him as a future Gold Cup winner, he will take the World Hurdle again no problems with that and where two odds on shots have miserably failed, this chap is the real deal and will oblige nicely. Pure Quality WON 5/6

In the Pertemps Final at 2.05 over 3 miles expect a big run from Ballyfitz who is probably better over hurdles than fences. He has been mixing both codes and despite his big weight he can do justice for his connections. His only win this season came on his only trip over hurdles at Sandown in December so that bodes well for today's race. He handles Cheltenham well and should be a good price to get stuck in with. scrubbed along before fading away

Nicanor is the interesting one in the Jewson at 1.30, the past 2006 RSA winner who beat Denman that day has been lightly raced since apart from three runs already in 2010 but is never far away and his win last time out at Navan proves he is still in good form. The faster ground will suit him and he is a live contender to win this level. never got going, sulked, pulled up and should have stayed at home

The Byrne Plate looks a stick the pin in job at the first glance but in last year's Jewson winner Chapoturgeon he can get his season back on track on this ground that will suit  much better than the three defeats he has had on the soft at Cheltenham this term. Timmy Murphy will be in the saddle again as he knows and handles him well. Held up, made headway four out but could not close up enoguh when pace quickened

The last race of the third day is the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir over 3m 1f where the Ferdy Murphy runner Galant Nuit won't be done for stamina having won his last race at Cheltenham over 3m 4f back in November. This Amateur riders race can be a bit of a nightmare with lack of experience having a big say in the final outcome, however Nina Carberry rides as well as any male jock I have seen so with her on the selection the confidence behind the selection is boosted.   got a bit outpaced but run on gamely near the finish to land a close up third, well backed 3rd 11/2

Today's selections

Cheltenham

1.30 Nicanor    Pulled Up

2.05 Ballyfitz    unplaced

2.40 Barbers Shop (Nap)     7th 11/2

3.15 Big Bucks    WON 5/6

4.00 Chapoturgeon   6th 12/1

4.40 Galant Nuit    3rd 11/2

Posted 17^th March 2010 (16.45)

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Cheltenham Day Two

Wednesday 17^th March 2010

Coral Cup triumph on the cards for Ruby

Well the first day of the festival was a tough one for favourite backers with the site not having the best start to the festival. In experienced jockeyship were the main reasons why Irish leading fancies Dunguib and Solwhit failed to shine in their races. The site tipped up Solwhit big time but was disappointed with the ride given to the horse by jockey Davy Russell who for some reason held the horse back when Celestial Halo shot off at the tape. Solwhit gets 2½ miles and part of his success this season has been gained by putting his rivals under the cosh from the start and with so many non-stayers in the race the tactics carried out were somewhat of a mystery. Not in a million years would I have backed Binocular especially after he was virtually pulled out of the race three or four weeks back with a muscular problem, I feel we have been put away big time and the betting market was kind of loose to say the least with 6/1 to 10/1 covering most of the field behind a false favourite in Go Native whose poor run was of no real surprise being has he barely gets two miles on a flat track let alone the undulations of Cheltenham. Binocular won in spectacular fashion producing his first bit of real form since coming to the fore in the festival two seasons or so back. It was a fascinating race all the same albeit a strange one regarding tactics and betting. Somersby should get a mention after a fine second in the Arkle, he got outpaced from three out down the hill but ran on well to close up on the line failing by ½ L.

So to Day Two, will it get better? I hope so but it does look almost impossible with so many runners and unknown quantities.

Peddlers Cross is a nice horse but connections decided to miss the Supreme Novices for Neptune Hurdle over a further distance of 5f. All of his unbeaten winning form has come over the minimum trips so we can only assume connections think he will stay a bit further and if he does he will represent some decent value.    WON 7/1 a terrific effort

In the opening race it may pay to have a dabble on Pettifour in a race that needs stamina in abundance over a trip of 4 miles in the National Hunt Chase, there are question marks over virtually all of the runners so stakes should be kept to a minimum investment. Held up at the back, mistakes early never got into race befor being pulled up

The Sun Alliance Chase looks a really good renewal with Long Run and Punchestowns heading the market for quite some time in the ante post but with question marks raised over the Waley Cohen's lack of experience on Long Run and participation doubts over Punchestowns I would sooner my money be on their stable mate Burton Port who at more than double the price looks a good sound prospect with a top jock in AP McCoy on board. 2nd 9/1

The Queen Mother Chase should go to defending Champion Master Minded but my each way will be on Big Zeb who if jumps ok will be there at the finish and poised to pounce on any mistakes from the market leaders.  WON 10/1 what a superb performance

The Coral Cup looks as tough as teak but I like Deutschland and feel the race will suit his style of racing, Ruby Walsh will be able to cover him up cruise along and produce after the last for a famous win. unplaced

There was plenty to like about Notus De La Tours last two wins especially over Ranjobaie who has won and run well again since. The David Pipe runner has missed a couple of engagements since his last win at Plumpton but looks a good fancy in the 4.40 Fred Winter.  2nd 13/2

The Bumper is always well supported but I cannot see anything getting near Dermot Welds Elegant Concorde who looks a bit special to me.

Today's selections

Cheltenham

1.30 Pettifour    Pulled Up

2.05 Peddlers Cross    WON 7/1

2.40 Burton Port    2nd 9/1

3.20 Big Zeb    WON 10/1

4.00 Deutschland (Nap)    unplaced

4.40 Notus De La Tour    2nd 13/2

5.15 Elegant Concorde

Posted 16^th March 2010 (17.30)

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Cheltenham Day One

Tuesday 16^th March 2010

The Champion looks a cracker, but who will crack first

Finally the wait is nearly over and all the talk, hype, boasts, hopes, dreams and realisations will be put in bold print, as the first day of the Cheltenham Festival gets under way. In the opening race at 1.30 The Supreme Novices over 2miles 110yds all eyes will be on the hot favourite Dunguib who back home in Ireland has been beating all put before him with considerable ease but the big question is, will his jumping be up to scratch over the tough undulating track of Prestbury Park? The ground at Cheltenham is likely to be faster than what he has been winning on back home and his jumping flaws will be tested to the limit. During his races he has been a bit sketchy over the timber but that may because he has been held on to against moderate competition and with a strong pace guaranteed in all the festival races he may well actually jump much better. There is no doubt he has the right engine and he will need it when running up the long hill. At odds on he is not one to play big with as he is still novicey despite his 7 years of age and his regular pilot Philip Fenton knows how and when to press his buttons. The pressure will be on though and is there something from the home team likely to upset the hotpot, the site thinks there is in the shape of the Nicky Henderson trained and unbeaten Oscar Whiskey who has been impressing himself, especially last time out at Sandown Park. There are still bits of 12/1 each way on offer with 10/1 generally and that is the best bet of the race, EACH WAY.Oscar Whiskey ran a good race but made a bad mistake three out which lost him some momentum, however he kept on to finish a creditable 4th at 12/1

Next up is the Arkle at 2.05 where 12 line up including the sites ante post selection Somersby trained by Henrietta Knight and ridden by Robert �Chocolate� Thornton. Somersby is unbeaten over two fence outings this term including very useful wins at Warwick and Sandown, both demanding tracks. Both times the selection was superb over his fences and that will definitely be the key to winning this hot race. Captain Cee Bee is the favourite from Ireland  and although a useful sort in his own right he will need to be on the top of his game to mix it with Somersby who has been supported into 4/1 (advised at 7/1). Somersby ran a cracking race but was outpaced down the hill before three out which cost him at the end as he was closing down on the winner by 3/4L to finish second at 4/1

At 2.40 a big field of 24 line up for the William Hill Trophy H�Cap Chase over 3m 110yds. On paper it looks a tough and tricky looking race but it is best to side with runners that hold some track course winning form and in that we have Razor Royale from the Twiston-Davies yard, Paddy Brennan in the plate. The site is expecting Twiston-Davies to have a good Cheltenham and he can kick things off with a win in this race. Razor Royale has had 10 runs at Cheltenham winning a couple with the more recent of those wins last November in an Amateurs race when winning by a massive 23L over the useful The Sawyer at 12/1, his price on offer today. His best win to date was last time out at Kempton when he picked up the Racing Post by a neck over Nacarat, a good performance 17 days ago. Assuming that race has not taken the edge off him he can win this at a nice backing price. Razor Royale was tracking the leaders up in the van but made two mistakes at the halfway point, lost ground and was pulled up when his chance was gone.

3.20 is the big one of the day, The Champion Hurdle with 12 runners going to post including the site ante post horse Solwhit who up to this time last week was in danger of missing the race after scooping dirty. He has been given a clean bill of health by his trainer but the bookies have drifted him out in the betting but still trades currently as second favourite behind Go Native who himself is chasing a �1 million pound bonus for his connections. The ground has possibly gone against Solwhit but he will make this a true test and with a few horses with stamina problems including the favourite he could still lead them all the way up the line. Celestial Halo is expected to run a big race and has the bonus of Ruby Walsh on board, however his front running tactics will make him the hare to be shot at. Solwhit was ridden the complete opposite to what I would have expected, a strange ride and dsiappointing 6th

 

4.00 is the Cross Country Chase which I still believe does not warrant Festival status, however with that said 16 runners go to post and it will be hard to see Garde Champetre not winning it for Ireland under Nina Carberry.    A bad mistake and then interferance stooped Nina Carberry making it three wins on the horse, a shade unlucky

The last race of Day One comes at 4.40 with the David Nicholson mares race over 2m 4f and this should be between the two heading the market Quevega and Voler La Verdette, the latter is the selection who has been winning for fun and this should be the cherry on top of the cake. Ran a fine race to finsih third behind a well produced Quevega win

Today's Cheltenham Festival Nap goes to 2.05 Somersby

 

Today's full selections

 

Cheltenham Day One

1.30 Oscar Whiskey (each way)    4th 12/1

2.05 Somersby (NAP)    2nd 4/1

2.40 Razor Royale    Pulled Up

3.20 Solwhit    6th 6/1

4.00 Garde Champetre    5th 7/4

4.40 Voler Le Vedette   3rd 9/4


Posted 15th March 2010 (20.15)

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Some Champion Hurdle clues

 

It's in the past that really matters at the highest level

 

With all the talk, all the hype, all the possibilities, the best piece of form on offer for this Champion hurdle is already in black and white. Cheltenham form is a great line to follow for the up and coming big races but Cheltenham Festival form is a different matter all together and should be ignored. Khyber Kim is being talked up and in the main betting lists not far away from the favourite Go Native. Khyber Kim has won his last two races at Cheltenham taking the Greatwood and Boylesports.com hurdles against rivals he will meet again in the Champion, but is that form any good? Or a red heron! Both of those wins came on soft ground, which he prefers but with the ground likely to be good to soft or faster his credentials look less desirable compared to his festival form where he was 22^nd of 27 in the 2008 County and 10^th of 19 in the Supreme Novices last season, both races were on good to soft which indicates two things. One is that Khyber Kim needs soft ground at least to be seen at his best and two on better ground at pace in big fields he is exposed and not good enough. Therefore he cannot be backed with any confidence and is better passed over.

Binocular has some good festival form but not winning form which is a worry especially as he was pulled out only to be reinstated after passing some fitness tests, he has not go on from his 3^rd in last years Champion and previous second in the 2008 Supreme Novices, again he is one to discount although he is capable of making the frame.

Celestial Halo ran a cracker to be second in last years Champion and he Won the 2008 Triumph hurdle so he must be taken seriously and although beaten by Khyber Kim in the Boylesports hurdle he is a much better horse on good or good to soft where the likely ground should see him beat that rival this time round. Go Native Won the Supreme Novices last year but has shown on flat tracks that he barely gets 2 miles so either he managed to outstay lesser rivals in 2009 renewal or he is going backwards in stamina only just managing to hang on against another non stayer Starluck over Christmas at Kempton, the ante post favourite would be a big negative for me on that Kempton run.

Medermit is being touted by many and is second in last years Supreme was a great run however he has been a bit disappointing and never won at Cheltenham in three attempts. If a horse can�t win at Cheltenham at all he is hardly going to start winning a Champion hurdle, he can be confidently dismissed. Solwhit has never run at Cheltenham and is much better on boggy ground and with him scooping badly last weekend, he is a possible non starter and despite being tipped up by this site at 6/1, he looks a non starter, however his battling qualities have won him many races this season being defeated just once when third in the Fighting Fifth in a farce of a pace race (better ignored).

Won In The Dark has run in two previous festivals, 3^rd in the 08 Triumph and 10^th in last years Champion, he simply does not look good enough along with Raise Your Heart (11^th in last years County) Muirhead 5^th in the Champion last year, done nothing of note since.

Donnas Palm and Ebadiyan best ignored and outsiders. So who is left to chew the fat over, Zaynar Won last years Triumph but was turned over at 1/14 over 2m 2f at Kelso in a bog, best ignored. However Triumph hurdle winners the year before do not have a good history when attempting to win the Champion the year after. So that leaves last years winners Punjabi who is having his fourth festival run after a 4^th in the 2007 Triumph, 3^rd in the 2008 Champion plus of course last seasons Champion crown. He certainly is at his best in March onwards but did he win a sub standard Champion in 09? Probably.

Starluck is a horse I really like but I still feel he is much better on flat less demanding tracks like Aintree, I can�t see him being good enough to win this as he shapes as a non stayer after cruising like a tank mid race.

 

Conclusion: Should Solwhit miss the race then my idea of the winner is Celestial Halo who will be primed for a big run on ground he likes plus the magic of Ruby on board to help him either battle it out with Solwhit or if missing go on to take the big un to go along with his 08 Triumph, only time will tell.

 

Russ Evans

11^th March 2010

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Cheltenham Update

By Russ Evans

10^th March 2010

 

Solwhit doubtful for Champion hurdle is a blow to site

 

Whenever bets are posted ante post and strong fancies are thought and made, the run up to a big event is always nervy as it is almost impossible to stay away from the racing news for that dreaded piece of info that states so and so has been pulled out or is now doubtful. It was while watching the Cheltenham preview on RUK that news broke about the doubt of Solwhit taking his chance in the Champion hurdle after he scoped badly, I believe a final decision will be made this Saturday on his chances which currently are less than 50/50. Another ante post horse put up on the site is the Nicholls trained Pistolet Noir who has been taken out of the Triumph hurdle, tipped up at 10/1 the horse then ran second in his next race to a big outsider and then was pushed out in the betting to 20/1, drifted further to 25/1 before being pulled out. Even at those longer odds I still fancied his chances so his omission is disappointing but I expect he will show up possibly at Aintree?

Should Solwhit miss the big race then I have another horse that I think is well capable of winning the race especially as the ground is looking to be on the goodish side of soft. I will keep that bit of information on ice for now until the final bits of the jigsaw are confirmed.

The opening race of the festival has produced some great winners in the past and this year’s Champion hurdle favourite Go Native won the Supreme Novices last year at 12/1. The big talking horse from Ireland this season is Dunguib who also had an entry in the Champion hurdle but wisely connections have decided to put that plan back another season. The Philip Fenton trained runner has been impressive this season beating all before him and heads the market odds on, which is very skinny despite him being a potential super star. In his races back home is has been a bit sticky over his hurdles but then again he is still a novice and those mistakes could well be because the pace of the races have not suited. When his jockey has decided to push the button he has responded magnificently putting distance quickly and effortlessly over his rivals. However with all that said, would you be prepared to back him at odds on? Probably not, I wouldn’t myself even though I have the utmost respect for the horse. One horse that has caught the eye is Donald McCains runner Peddlers Cross who has an entry in the further distanced Neptune. I am hoping that connections decide to run him in the Supreme against Dunguib as he has too much pace to waste in the other mentioned engagement. His jumping has been superb and quick and as won his three races this season against some decent opposition and although two years younger than the favourite he still as the experience to run a very big race at more attractive odds of around 13/2. Of course it is now best to wait until plans are concrete before playing in the market but should he line up he is the one for me.

At 2.05 it’s time for the Arkle and Somersby since being put up by the site has seen his price gradually shorten to 5/1 from 8/1. Jumping will win this race and he has shown so far on two winning runs over the bigger obstacles that he can jump very well.

The site will have a more detailed reports on the days action the evening before every day so make sure to tune in online for what is going to be four cracking days action.

 

 

Russ Evans

Posted 10^th March 2020 (11.30am)

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Cheltenham ante post update

31^st January 2010

 

Noir price doubles as Big Zeb is cut

 

As you know the site posted an ante post Canadian bet recently and since then two of the runners have had a race. Triumph Hurdle hope Pistolet Noir was second yesterday in the opener at Cheltenham going down 2L to a 100/1 shocker. However the good news is that the bookies have doubled the price and 20/1 is now up for grabs. Pistolet Noir in my view was beaten because Ruby could get him to settle in a small field and will be much better suited when a big Triumph field lines up come March. He was running on again up the hill but used up too much energy during the race and that run will bear no importance to his intended target, don’t be put off by that run and enjoy the fact that you can now get 20/1 instead of the advised 10/1.

 

Big Zeb won his race today impressively by 7L at Punchestown and the bookies have reacted by shortening him from 8/1 to 5/1. If he can bring his Irish form with him on the day in the Champion Chase then he will certainly give the Nicholls pair some thing to think about.

 

The Arkle betting took further shape today when the advice Somersby was cut again to 6/1 from 7/1, the Knight horse will run a big race and will have a prep run in February, a win will make him favourite so get on now.

 

Barbers Shop will go straight to Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase as reported in the Racing press, in my eyes the 6/1 is a top bet and I will not have him beaten at any price. The trip is ideal for this fellow who jumps so well and I cannot wait for the race, I wish it was tomorrow so I can go and collect my money.

 

 

The Cheltenham Festival 2010 line up

 

Tuesday 16th March

Time	Race	Distance
1.30	Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle	2m 1/2f
2.05	Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase	2m
2.40	William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase	3m 1/2f
3.20	Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy	2m 1/2f
4.00	Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase	3m 7f
4.40	David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race	2m 4f

Russ Evans

31^st January 2010

 

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Impressive Solwhit heads the Market

By Russ Evans

27^th January 2010

 

Last Sunday in the Irish Champion hurdle, Solwhit continued his step up for stardom by taking the Leopardstown race in battling style. Tracking the early leaders close up, Davy Russell brought his mount up three hurdles out and went on with ex champion Sublimity, who running another good race. Both runners where bobbing heads approaching the last until Solwhit wore down his rival with his speed and stamina winning by just over 4L from the running on Donnas Palm who was a further 1 ½ clear of Sublimity who ran out of steam in third.

 

            It is clear Charles Byrnes has his horse in great form and I would guess he will now be wrapped up for Cheltenham and the big day although it would not surprise me if he did come out again. Betfred along with other bookies have installed him as the new ante post favourite cutting him from 6/1 (as advised by the site see below) to 4/1. At 4/1 Solwhit still represents a good bet as he will not be found wanting up the Cheltenham hill when the chips are down. The ante post advice runs his races in this style of a real old battler with speed and his stamina is definitely what Champion horse need at the finish. Unlike the flat tracks such as Aintree etc Prestbury Park even over the minimum trip still needs some getting and his engine is clearly for all to see. My previous rating of 6 out of 10 will be advised as a 9 after this fine effort.

 

Another advice that has been clipped by a point in the ante post market is Henrietta Knight’s Somerbsy in the Arkle Chase. There is a lot of confidence behind her runner and I expect the price to shorten even further as the festival approaches.

 

If you like an ante post combination bets on what is the best racing action there is then this little bet below to a £1 stake pays a tidy £51,799.00. The bet is a £1 win Canadian or Super Yankee which is 26 bets (see the Know Your Bets page on this site for other combinations) with a stake of £26. However a 50p stake would cost £13.00 for a payout of £25,899.50, 25p stake is at a cost of £6.50 for a pick up of £12,949.75.

 

 

The advised bet at these prices is as follows

 

Arkle Chase    Somersby 7/1

Ryanair Chase    Barbers Shop 6/1

Champion Chase    Big Zeb 8/1

Champion Hurdle    Solwhit 4/1

Triumph Hurdle    Pistolet Noir    10/1

 

The above prices are currently available with Betfred as at 27^th Jan 2010 at 11.45am

 

 

Russ Evans

Cheltenham 2010 Preview

 

Lets go shopping for a maximum 10 rating

 

We are only a few weeks away from the Cheltenham Festival in March so let’s have a look at some ante post bet selections. Barbers Shop fails to stay anything past three miles so will not line up in the Gold Cup this year but in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday 18^th March, he looks to have a race trip that is ideal for him. In this year’s King George he was still going well approaching two out but found the wall and faded back in fourth despite trying hard to battle on. The Queens horse jumps very well, as a good cruising speed and is a proven performer around the Cheltenham course. Nicky Henderson will sure to have his runner in good form and the 6/1 still looks good value especially as he will be one of the sites banker bets of the meeting.

 

            Another Henderson horse who is a big star in the making is Punchestowns who heads the market at 7/2 for the RSA Chase, a good performer over hurdles he was second to the excellent Big Bucks in last years World Hurdle. He was beaten again by the Nicholls horse in his race before the Festival and with his main rival sticking to hurdles for the time being there seemed very little option but to send him over jumps where he duly obliged on his debut at Newbury back in November. The weather has stopped him from running again but no doubt he will be out again before March and another win will strengthen his position at the head of the market so it may be wise to take the 7/2 now as he will be hard to beat.

 

The Champion Chase at the moment looks a fascinating race after the way Champion Master Minded performed in his debut race of the season. He was obviously not right that day but still holds a short price favouritism slot with the bookies, however until he comes back out and performs to his normal winning standard he cannot be touched at that price. A bit further down the betting is Big Zeb from Ireland who gave the Champion a tough race when going down by a short head last April at Punchestown. He then went on to win his next race at Navan over Made In Taipan but was well beaten in the Tingle Creek to Twist Magic by 33L. His only run at Cheltenham was in last years Champion Chase when he fell four out when still going well, he may not have won that day but he would have been in the shake up. A year on and with doubts about Master Minded, if he can bring his home from to the races overseas then the 7/1 on offer looks a decent reward as he has the talent and engine to win a big race.

 

            The Arkle looks a good renewal with plenty of horses in with a shout but Henrietta Knights Somersby looks a good prospect at 8/1. A fair hurdler with out being really top class he always had the look of being an exciting chaser and two wins from two over the big obstacles he has found his place in the National Hunt game. His trainer is very excited about his chances after his last win over the useful Crack Away Jack at Sandown when he powered home up the hill to win by nearly 3L in a small field. He made a couple of mistakes but jumped well and will only come on from that run. Again the weather has stopped him from turning out again but a run in the next 2-4 weeks is on the cards before the Arkle. Another good win will see his odds probably be cut in half so the 8/1 is best taken now.

 

The Triumph Hurdle is always a great betting race and horses that have a big engine and battling qualities only win this race as it normally boasts a big field so plenty of hustle and bustle goes on and the weak hearted are found out long before the turn for home. Paul Nicholls runner Pistolet Noir has only had two runs and past winners have needed a bit more experience to win this type of race, however he is sure to have another run out before the big day and assuming all goes well the 10/1 that is currently on offer is looking good value even at this early stage. He was beaten at Chepstow on his debut looking a bit one paced after the last flight but only went down by 2L which was encouraging and when he was turned out at Cheltenham a month later in November during the Paddy Power meeting he powered up the hill in a class 1 race beating useful Barizan by 9L. He stayed on strongly suggesting that the climb at Prestbury will bring the battling qualities out in him, he looks a good un.

 

            The Champion Hurdle looks a belter and is wide open with 5/1 the favourite in the ante post lists. The site is keen on Irish raider Solwhit who has put some good horses to bed over the past two seasons; in fact he missed the festival last season and went straight to Aintree winning the Aintree Hurdle at 6/1. That suggested he prefers flat tracks and that may prove to be the case but connections are keen to run him this year and his only defeat of last season came at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth when he was third to 25/1 winner Go Native. That was a funny old race with all the hot pots being turned over so the form of that running looks a bit out of sorts. He was back to winning ways next time out when beating previous Champion Sublimity by 2L at Punchestown. He beat last years Champion Hurdler Punjabi back in May by a short head which may have decided his line up in this year’s renewal. The site is not too strong about having a big bet at 6/1 as there is still a slight niggling doubt about his preference for flattish tracks but on paper he holds a great chance. Starluck definitely prefers flat tracks so cannot be too excited about his chances in the Champion, Aintree seems a better option for him.

 

            In the World Hurdle, nothing can stop Big Bucks who looks even better than last year when the site was raving about his chances last season. Surely a tilt at the 2011 Gold Cup is the bet about him now.

 

Summary (rating out of 10)

 

Triumph Hurdle    Pistolet Noir 10/1   Rating 7

Arkle    Somersby 8/1    Rating 8

Champion Hurdle    Solwhit 6/1    Rating 6 (revised rating of 9 27/1/10)

Champion Chase    Big Zeb 7/1    Rating 7

RSA Chase    Punchestowns 7/2    Rating 8

Ryanair Chase    Barbers Shop 6/1    Rating 10

 

2011 Gold Cup    Big Bucks      Rating 10

 

 

More updates for Cheltenham Festival will follow leading up to the big meeting in March, feel free to subscribe to the site so you will know when updates have been made to the Preview page.

 

 

RussEvansRacing 17^th January 2010

 

 

 

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